seestyle: NFL picks for Week 4 Straight-up bets lines to watch last m

The closer the weekend gets, the sharper the lines get and the harder it is to find value on , but this week Ive found a couple which are of interest.MORE: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver BroncosOpening line: Theres a few things that jump out at me here. The Broncos are statistically better than their record so far. After losing to a pumped- Cincinnati Reds Jersey up Oakland team in the opener, theyve controlled their games in terms of po se sion and first downs. Theyhad the ball for sixminutes more against the Bears in Week 2 and 11 minutes more against the Packers, with 13 more first downs in those two games.They have been moving the ball well, controlling tempo andcreating turnovers on defense, but that hasn't translated into touchdowns as of yet. Theyre running well, with Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freemanforming a good partnership, and for his many flaws, JoeFlacco hasnt been the entire i sue for this team. He does need Courtland Sutton to fully make the leap and rookie TE Noah Fant not to fumble, but if a Freeman rushing TD wasnt called back against the Packers last week they could have stolen a win there.Week 4NFL PICKS:| The Broncos are overdue for a big sack game, too an amazing trend with Vic Fangio as HC and Von Miller and Bradley Chubb aselite pa s rushers. Theyre yet to record a sack this season. That has to be more of an anomaly than the norm.For this game specifically,Jalen Ramsey looks Jesse Winker Jersey like he might be checked out waiting for a trade. Thats a huge boost for the Broncos,facing a rookie QB who Michael Lorenzen Jersey admittedly has played well. But they dont have a whole lot of targets, and with Chris Harris Jr. probably shutting down DJ Chark, theres not much to throw to.And finally, if you want a further statistical note, their home record in September is brilliant. From Week 3 of 2012, the Broncoshavewon 13 games straight at home in September up until the game they threw away against the Browns twoweeks ago. The altitude with teams who arent up to full fitne s gives them a decent advantage.NFL pick: Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago BearsOpening line: Two of the best defenses in the league face off in an NFC North clash which neither can afford to lose. With the Lions still undefeated at 2-0-1 and the Packers losing on Thursday night, it gives a chance for the winner of this game to join the Packers atop the division at 3-1.I very much doubt this will be a high-scoring game, a view shared by the bookies with a line of around 38.5 on the board, which is right around where I think it should be.Its a divisional game, so both teams Yasiel Puig Jersey know each other well, and bothare hitting opposition QBs regularly Bears with 11 sacks, Vikings with 10 this season. Theyre 10th and 12th in yards allowed per game, respectively, and secondand fifth in points allowed per game in the small sample weve had this season.So whats the differentiating factor here? For me, its the offenses. The Bears offense just doesnt work at the moment and thats pretty much entirely on Mitchell Trubisky.MORE: Frankly, hes just not very good at the moment. He can make a few plays, but is horribly off-target on so many easy throws and this is with a simplified playbook in place for him. Yes, he had threeTDs on Monday, all to Taylor Gabriel, who is likely to mi s this week with a concu sion, but one was a busted coverage, one a fantastic catch, and the other from the 1-yard line.Admittedly, Kirk Cousins isnt exactly pulling up any trees on the other side of the ball, but hes not being asked to. And for my I think Jose Iglesias Jersey this is where the Vikings will win the game. They have the best rusher in the league at the moment in Dalvin Cook, and despite the fact that teams know the gameplan and know Cook is going to get the ball, theyve been unable to stop them so far this season. He is well and truly pa sing the eye-test so far and has put up over 100 yards and oneTD each game.Even when Cook is rested, theyve got the rookie Alexander Mattison who can step in and do a similar job to Cook. He also found the end zone last week on his limited carries.The Bears' gameplan revolves around forcing turnovers on defense and givingtheir average QB good field position to work with. Not even Mitch is Mike Moustakas Jersey able to me s up too badly when they get the ball inside the opponents 30. If the Vikings avoid turnovers, they win this match.NFL pick: .